Update
This document was originally posted on 21 Jul 2024 at 5:51 AM CT.
Later that same day, at 1:13 PM CT, Joe Biden posted the following announcement on X:
- “My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.” [Source]
For further reading, read the Kamala Harris Report 2024.
The remainder of this document is the original content as was posted on the morning of 21 Jul 2024.
Summary
This document provides news and information about a possible Biden transition currently being discussed by leaders in the Democratic Party.
This document has been created as a placeholder in the event that another candidate is chosen to run in the general election this November.
Selected news reports are provided below in chronological order with the most recent at the top.
Some commentary and analysis, for context, can be found at the bottom of this document.
Biden Fit to Serve?
There’s a misconception regarding Biden’s choice to bow out of the 2024 election. Critics are saying, “If he’s stepping down because he’s not fit to run, then he’s currently not fit to serve and should resign immediately.”
- TRANSITIONAL — In the 2020 election, Biden described himself as a transitional president. He is following through on that promise.
- SLOW DECLINE — If Biden is visibly having diminished mental acuity and physical stamina, then it makes sense for him to have a planned phasing out of his service. It doesn’t mean he’s not fit to serve from July through January 2025. He acknowledges he needs to focus on the Presidency and service to the country now, pacing himself, and not being consumed by campaigning.
- PUBLIC PERCEPTION – While it seems Biden may be slowed down, and not as energetic or sharp as someone in their 40s, he is still capable of serving. However, the media portrayal of him and the public perception of him has become an obstacle to reelection. Multiple media outlets across the political spectrum from left to right have become unceasingly critical of Biden — repeatedly showing video clips of him stumbling or having verbal gaffes. Traditionally left-leaning media outlets have become more critical than those on the right. This includes news as well as late-night comedians. It’s nearly impossible to win an election if news media huddles into a unified pack against you.
The video below explains how Republican critics are calling for Biden to resign immediately. [Video: NBC, 22 Jul 2024]
News
Because this is a developing story, the following entries are listed by day and time with the most recent at the top.
PBS (6 Aug 2024)
“Biden’s Decision (full documentary)” — President Biden’s decision to end his bid for reelection less than four months before the 2024 election was the latest dramatic and difficult moment in what has been a lifetime of challenges and controversies, triumphs and tragedies. In the documentary “Biden’s Decision,” FRONTLINE offers a sweeping look at Biden’s life and legacy and examines his five decades in U.S. politics. From his childhood battle with stuttering and then the death of his wife and young child, through his decades as a U.S. senator, his failed presidential bids, his eight years as vice president in the Obama administration, and then finally taking office as president himself in a time of cascading national crises, Biden was always one to pick himself back up after challenging moments, those who know him told FRONTLINE. [Source]
Al Jazeera (21 Jul 2024 at 2342)
“Biden drops out of presidential race amid pressure, endorses Kamala Harris to take over” — US President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race against Donald Trump. He’s endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place, so have over a hundred Congressional Democrats. [Source]
NBC (21 Jul 2024 at 2115)
“President Biden’s political legacy” — President Joe Biden’s political career has spanned more than five decades and has been defined by triumphs and tragedies. NBC News’ Lester Holt reports on the lead-up to this historic moment. [Source]
CBS (21 Jul 2024 at 2113)
“Biden drops reelection bid, upending 2024 race” — President Biden ended his reelection campaign Sunday, less than four months before Election Day. Democrats now face an unprecedented process to replace him on the party’s ticket. CBS News’ John Dickerson, Willie James Inman, Nancy Cordes, Nikole Killion and Margaret Brennan report on Biden’s historic decision. [Source]
NBC (21 Jul 2024 at 2101)
“Swing state voters react to Biden withdrawal” — Crucial swing state voters are reacting to President Biden ending his 2024 presidential re-election campaign. His withdrawal is raising questions about next steps for delegates heading into the Democratic National Convention. NBC News’ Marissa Parra and Laura Jarrett report. [Source]
CBS (21 Jul 2024 at 1939)
“A look at Biden’s decades-long political career” — President Biden’s announcement to drop out of the 2024 presidential race marked a historic moment in his decades-long career in politics. CBS News chief Washington correspondent Major Garrett takes a look back. [Source]
Fox (21 Jul 2024 at ~1900)
“Biden steps down in the ‘interest’ of the country and his party” — Fox News White House correspondent Peter Doocy has the latest on President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 election and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’ [Source]
ABC News (21 Jul 2024 at ~1000)
“What a new poll says about Biden’s support among voters” — President Joe Biden is expected to return to the campaign trail after recovering from COVID with just weeks before the Democratic convention, as calls for him to step out of the race grows. [Source]
ABC News (20 Jul 2024)
“Biden aides huddle amid calls to exit” — The president vows to return to the campaign trail next week as his COVID-19 symptoms continue to improve. [Source]
MSNBC (20 Jul 2024)
“VP Harris ‘doing the work she needs’ to be a ‘great candidate’: fmr. national security advisor” — Olivia Troye, former homeland security advisor to Vice President Pence, gives her thoughts on the events of the last week, from Democrats’ calls to give Vice President Kamala Harris the Democratic nomination to the assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump. [Source]
MSNBC (20 Jul 2024)
“‘Notorious for not holding grudges’: Former aide on how Biden is dealing with calls to end campaign” — While President Biden recovers at home, more Democrats have called on him to leave the presidential race ahead of the DNC in August. Meghan Hays, a former aide to President Biden, gives her thoughts on the swirling uncertainty surrounding Biden. [Source]
NBC (20 Jul 2024)
“Protesters call on Biden to step down as Democrats remain divided” — Protesters urged President Biden to “pass the torch” at a gathering in front of the White House on Saturday. Internally, top Democrats are divided, with sources telling NBC News that the Clintons are supportive of Biden’s candidacy while former President Obama has voiced concerns. NBC News’ Allie Raffa reports. [Source]
Channel 4 (19 Jul 2024)
“30 Democratic lawmakers call for Biden to pull out of presidential race” — Recovering from Covid in his beach house in Delaware, Joe Biden has let it be known that he intends to resume campaigning on Monday. [Source]
MSNBC (19 Jul 2024)
“VP Harris ready to rise to top of ticket at ‘any moment’: Alcindor” — Vice President Kamala Harris is juggling attempts to soothe Democrat concerns over President Joe Biden’s candidacy with reported efforts to map out her possible ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket. NBC News Managing Editor Carol Lee, NBC News Washington Correspondent Yamiche Alcindor, Politico White House Correspondent Eugene Daniels and former Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) join Katy Tur with the latest on the Biden-Harris 2024 campaign. [Source]
MSNBC (19 Jul 2024)
“Biden digs in as more Democrats urge him to step aside” — President Biden’s campaign insists he will not step aside, even as his party increasingly warns that he cannot win in November. Peter Baker, Charlie Sykes, and former Senator Heidi Heitkamp join The 11th Hour to discuss. [Source]
PBS (19 Jul 2024)
“How long can Biden fight the calls for him to drop out of the presidential race?” — Looming over everything in Washington is one question, will Joe Biden stay in the race and face the Caesar of the Republican Party, Donald Trump? The panel discusses the calls from Democrats for the president to exit the campaign. [Source]
Commentary
Incumbent Advantages
In a presidential election, it’s common for a party to choose their incumbent for the following reasons:
- The incumbent was already selected once by a majority of party members.
- The incumbent is known and can be measured on their accomplishments.
- They are considered the most prepared to run the country, having already held the position for several years.
- An incumbent is usually someone most likely to have the best chance at winning an election for the reasons mentioned above. Also, name recognition isn’t a problem.
Reasons to Switch Mid-Election
There are a few reasons that party members may want to switch to another candidate as the presidential first term is concluding:
- If there has been a scandal.
- If there is a serious worsening health concern.
- Lack of trust for some other reason.
- Concern about the incumbent’s ability to serve effectively for another term.
- Concern about the incumbent’s ability to win in the general election.
Taking Players Out of the Game
In sports, the coach of a team monitors how the players are performing and will pull some people out and put others in for strategic reasons.
In 2024, leading up to the November election, for a narrow window of time, members of the Democratic Party have an opportunity to consider collectively supporting a different candidate for president.
This change can be made simply for reasons of election strategy. This may seem superficial — less focused on a candidate’s competence and policy. Yet, the ability to win an election is a legitimate concern and priority.
This narrow window of opportunity is similar to the open enrollment time period when a person can make changes to their healthcare insurance coverage every year in November. Otherwise, you need a major life event such as marriage.
Concerns with Biden
Supporters of Joe Biden would point out that he has been effectively serving in office over the past few years and has spent his entire life in public service. They will be quick to list his many accomplishments.
The actual concerns about Biden, among voters, are not with his life of service or time as President. Those concerned about Biden point to what seems like a slow physical and mental decline which raises two questions: (1) In that state, can he serve four more years? (2) In that state, can he win a general election?
Recent Timeline of Concerns
Biden was perceived to be out of public view for quite a while. So, the recent series of underwhelming public performances have focused attention on Biden. His poor performance has caused people to wonder if he can win in November, and if he wins, if can serve four more years. The timeline is below.
Presidential Debate (27 Jun 2024)
Supporters of Biden undoubtedly had high expectations for the presidential debate. It was to be a moment for Biden to shine. It went poorly for Biden and resulted in many people beginning to wonder about his ability to continue serving. We were told by White House staff that it was just a single bad night. [Watch Debate]
ABC Interview (5 Jul 2024)
An interview was conducted by George Stephanopoulos of ABC News to reassure voters about Biden. Unfortunately, the interview didn’t go well. When asked if he had watched the debate, Biden said, “I don’t think I did. No.” At 15 minutes into the interview, the discussion abut polls was awkward. At 15m 45s, Biden declares that nobody is more “qualified to be president or win this race” than him. [Watch Interview]
NATO Event (11 Jul 2024)
Concluding a speech at a NATO event, Biden mistakenly introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin.” [Watch Video]
Press Conference (11 Jul 2024)
Seemingly in an effort to calm concerns about recent gaffes, Biden held a press conference. There were repeated difficult pointed questions from reporters about the concerns people have regarding Biden. A list of reporters to call on was given to Biden.
- Question #1 at 7m 49s [Watch] Regarding concerns people have about Biden, and if he has concerns about Kamala Harris in her ability to serve as President if needed. Biden answered, “Look, I wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be Vice President to I think she was not qualified to be president. So, let’s start there. Number one. The fact is the consideration is that I think I’m the most qualified person to run for president.”
- Question #2 at 10m 25s [Watch] Regarding Biden calling Zelensky “President Putin” earlier in the day, and world leaders commenting on Biden’s decline.
- Question #3 at 12m 6s [Watch] Question about Biden’s friends and supporters asking him to stand down.
The remaining questions were similarly pointed.
NBC Interview (15 Jul 2024)
In an interview with Lester Holt of NBC News, at 1m 53s, Biden was pointedly asked if his own rhetoric could have contributed toward tension and violence. Biden recently suggested that Trump should be in the bullseye because he’s an existential threat. A short while after Biden’s comments, someone tried to shoot Trump at a rally. Biden’s response to the question in the interview was mostly to talk about how bad Trump has been with the divisive language he uses. [Watch Interview]
Media Changes Posture
As is evidenced by the recent interviews above, several media outlets considered to be left-leaning seem to be pushing back on Biden and the White House. The favor and protection usually give to the President has declined.
The media outlets that are being hard on Biden, were very gracious in covering the Republican National Convention, by offering positive interviews with many of those in attendance.
This change could have influence and make the election more difficult for Biden.
In addition to the recent interviews, mainstream media has generally not been covering for Biden or defending him.
Biden Won the Primary
Supporters of Joe Biden argue that the voters have selected Joe Biden. They did not select some other candidate. So, it’s anti-democratic to have a small group of insider power brokers choose his replacement.
The response to that is to acknowledge that millions of people did not choose Biden during the primaries, but only voted for him when the inside power brokers chose to end the primary process early by negotiating for Biden to be favored and have others drop-out before Super Tuesday — thus ignoring voters in many states during the primary process.
It’s true that Biden won the primary and the general election, yet along the way some people felt disenfranchised. There are some voters who might say, “Yes, I voted for Biden, but only when he was the only choice left. I had three other candidates I preferred over him.”